$51B in 2026. $274B in 2027. $731B in 2028.
That is Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s revenue forecast for SpaceX. That is 12.5 times what the company is doing today.
Elon Musk replied on X: “I think we can do better.”
The model in four numbers:
$51B of revenue in 2026, $274B in 2027, $731B in 2028
78% of the 2028 total comes from one line: renting out AI compute
$747B of capex over three years, and 250 Starship flights in 2028 alone
Bernstein, after raising its numbers last week, sits at $424B for 2028
Its author? The partner who has led Sequoia’s SpaceX investments since 2020. He opens the post by calling himself extremely biased.
We checked it line by line against SpaceX’s Q3 results, the earnings call and the Street.
→ The first year of the model is already close to what SpaceX told investors. The 2028 number rests on a few bets, and the biggest one is a price.
📚 In this newsletter, I break down where the $731B comes from, which numbers are already real, and how to stress-test any model like this one!
High-signal analysis on markets, capital and the companies shaping the next decade
Inside you will find:
The Sequoia Partner Who Modeled Starlink When It Had One Quarter of Revenue See who built the model, how his 2020 Starlink forecast held up, and why he says he is biased.
Why 78% of the $731B Comes From Renting Out Compute Learn how SpaceX makes money from gigawatts, explained in plain words, segment by segment.
Why the First Year of the Model Is Already in SpaceX’s Guidance Find out which numbers tie to the Q3 call, and where he sits below Musk.
Why Price per Gigawatt Decides Whether It’s $731B or $447B See the one assumption that separates him from Bernstein, and who is paying today.
What It Takes to Build 21 Gigawatts and Fund $747B of Capex Learn what has to physically happen by 2028, and where the cash comes from.
Why Maguire Calls Starship the Biggest Moat in History Find out how one launch turns into $5B of revenue, and why 250 flights matter.
How to Stress-Test Any Bottoms-Up Model Like This One Use five questions on the next big forecast you read, or on your own.
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