Compute Is the New Oil
The companies you need to know
The most valuable resource in AI right now is not data.It is compute.Here are the facts:
Nvidia did $68.1B in revenue in Q4 FY26, up 73% YoY. Its data center business alone did $62.3B in the quarter, up 75% YoY.
For the full year, Nvidia did $215.9B in revenue, and its data center business reached $193.7B
Microsoft spent $37.5B in capex in Q2 FY26. Roughly two thirds went to short-lived assets, mainly GPUs and CPUs. The key sentence from Microsoft was: customer demand still exceeds supply.
Alphabet guided to $175B to $185B of capex in 2026, up from $91.45B in 2025. The money is going into servers, data centers and networking equipment. Sundar Pichai said Google expects to remain supply-constrained through the year.
The IEA says data center electricity consumption is expected to roughly double from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh in 2030. AI-focused data center consumption is expected to triple.
AI is no longer just a software market.
It is becoming an industrial market.
Every AI agent consumes tokens.
Every token consumes compute.
Every unit of compute needs chips, memory, networking, data centers, power, cooling and capital.
That is why compute is becoming the new oil.
But the opportunity is not just Nvidia.
The opportunity is the entire compute supply chain.
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Most of the headlines we see are about the obvious part of the AI boom: another model launch, another giant funding round, another AI startup raising at a crazy valuation.
But there may be a safer and potentially huge opportunity underneath all of that.
The real question is not only who builds the best AI app.
It is who owns, finances, powers, connects, rents or optimizes the compute those AI apps need to run.
So in this newsletter, I’ll break down the compute market in a simple way: the main layers, the companies exposed to each layer, and where the biggest investment opportunities may be.
Let me know what you think!
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